EXCLUSIVE: Why Buhari may lose re-election bid in 2019

EXCLUSIVE: Why Buhari may lose re-election bid in 2019

There is serious confusion in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), multiple sources within the party have told NAIJ.com.

This follows the near-concluded decision of some party big-wigs to dump it and fuse into a mega-party ahead of the 2019 general elections. But this idea is said to have been jettisoned for another strategy that could make President Muhammadu Buhari lose his bid for a second term.

The sources attributed this move by aggrieved party members to various reasons ranging from political considerations to the argument that the present administration has not made the party proud.

Is the gang-up against Muhammadu Buhari real?

The Buhari administration came into existence in May, 2015 with high expectations from Nigerians and those within the party.

The belief was that he already had a road-map concerning the solutions to the country's challenges and that being a former head of state and three-time contender for the exulted seat, he must have been privy to what the country was facing at that time.

READ ALSO: Mixed reactions as Buhari plots Osinbajo's sack

"But we were mistaking and unconsciously so too. His integrity and good name and the fact that he is from the northern part of the country that had felt short-changed were what many of us sold to Nigerians," one of the sources told NAIJ.com explaining that since taking office, the president had engaged in lamentations rather search for solutions to the country's problems.

"Another issue is the in-fighting that the president has allowed fester," the source said.

INTERNAL CRISES

The president is the leader of the party. However, his silence has not helped the unity of the party which some have now described as a marriage of convenience.

The various crises started just after the party won the 2015 election and there were issues with how to fill the various positions.

"First was the battle for the leadership of the National Assembly, and many of us in the party knew that Bola Tinubu was simply fighting Dr Bukola Saraki for refusing to respect Buhari's choice for the Senate presidency.

READ ALSO: Saraki accused of bribing Oyegun over spokesman position

"Yet, throughout the period, the president kept silent. When he would speak, he simply said he had no problem with anyone who emerged. But the government continued to fight Saraki with different suits without much evidences to actually nail him.

Shehu Sani and Governor Nasir El-Rufai are creating tension in Kaduna state

"Remember the Senate is made up of former governors. So it was easy for the legislators to fight back in an attempt to frustrate the executive," one of the sources, a member of the House of Representatives from Lagos, said revealing that a lot of people in the party are not happy with the current situation of the country.

Another major crisis that could boomerang if not properly handled is that between Nasir el-Rufai, the governor of Kaduna state and Senator Shehu Sani. The political quarrel reached a crescendo at the weekend when gunmen attacked the office of the senator just days after he suspended indefinitely.

Of course, Sani accused the governor of sending the gunmen after him and asked Nigerians to know who to hold responsible for anything that happens to him. The crisis in the state has now factionalised the party with some loyal to the senator.

READ ALSO: Budget 2017: Buhari, Saraki meet behind closed doors

There is also the case between Timi Frank and the party. Frank, a deputy spokesperson, is not happy, and has openly protested against alleged plans by the party to render him useless. He has now been suspended.

TINUBU VERSUS THE CABAL

Though the party continues to make attempts at shading this, sources within the party attest to a rift between the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and some men in the Buhari government. Some of these people, according to a party chieftain loyal to the Tinubu camp, are those supposedly brought to the limelight by the former governor of Lagos state.

Buhari is said to be surrounded by those who have helped to create a barrier between him and leaders within the party

According to this source who is a chieftain of the party in Lagos, it remains painful that these set of political appointees may have been giving the president the impression that these people could match the national leader, especially where it has to do with future elections.

READ ALSO: APC crisis: Akeredolu shades Tinubu

"We are not complaining, but we think if not well managed, the president's ambition for second term, if he has any, may suffer. You need to be conversant with what happened pre-election in 2015 to understand what I mean. There are very hidden underground roles played by some key figures, not just Tinubu, for the emergence of the present administration," the source said.

To ensure the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ended its 16-year reign in 2015, the APC adopted various strategies including reportedly contracting a foreign public relations consultancy firm. The result was that Nigerians no longer saw anything good about the PDP prior to the election.

SARAKI THE HOT CAKE

The Senate president, Bukola Saraki, has become the most sought-after bride as it is now. Saraki is believed by some within the party as having his eyes fixed on the presidency.

He became the chairman of the National Assembly through a tough battle against the forces within the party that never wanted him. The presidency had favoured another candidate for the position, but Saraki was able to take over the process.

Saraki has visited Buhari on different occasions

It is widely known that his emergence did not go down well with the presidency. The result was the series of trials and cold shoulder that Saraki 'enjoyed' from the presidency.

READ ALSO: Buhari explains his relationship with Tinubu; issues of abandoning Jagaban

However, just recently, the Senate president has become a hot cake. About four times has he visited Aso Rock holding closed-door meetings with the president and leaving Nigerians to speculate.

NAIJ.com learnt that the visit may not be unconnected with the fact that there moves to attract Saraki to a faction of the APC that habours the aggrieved members. Since Saraki remains relevant to the success of the Buhari administration, anything would be done to make him remain with the camp of the president. But will he stay knowing that there lies those who have Buhari's ears?

STRATEGIES ALREADY PLANNED

A source and close ally of Tinubu confirmed that the formation of a mega party to wrestle the APC was actually put on the table, but that the national leader rejected it when it was brought to him.

Tinubu recently denied forming a new party. He argued that he fought for the emergence of the APC and would not therefore want to leave the party.

It was learnt that the idea of the new party did not emerge from the camp of the former governor but from a northern politicians whose eyes may still be fixed on the presidency as well as some members of the now opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

“It was something he decided to ruminate about for many days. But he just decided that it he was not going to be part of the plot. Tinubu will never take any rash decision, but I can tell you that it is going to be tough in the APC to such a level that for the party to remain in 2019, there must be some cleansing and recourse to revert to Jagaban (Tinubu).

Tinubu is having a running battle with the national chairman of the APC, John Odigie-Oyegun over the outcome of the primary election in Ondo

“Remember that those currently surrounding the president are just there for what they can put in their pockets. Nigeria’s politics has to do with both ideas and money and I can tell you that Buhari got these two majorly from the south-west and the south-south. Now that he is there, he has suddenly brought up those who can derail his government.

“How do you account for the fact that nothing much has been achieved nearly two years into the administration? Do you think it is by error? There are people who have the ideas but who are being sidelined and this will not do the party any good,” the source said.

Some leaders in the party, it was learnt, may have been sourcing for a possible replacement for the president as fears grow about his ability to carry on for eight years. To this end, some governors in the northern part of the country are being closely watched.

READ ALSO: Oyegun meets with Saraki, others, over APC crisis

There had been speculations that Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano state as well as Waziri Tambuwal of Sokoto may have presidential ambition, but there had been denials too. The idea of keeping it in the north is to maintain the unwritten zoning principle among politicians in the country.

It is not known how the party’s crisis would eventually be resolved, but it was learnt that there are intense moves already. A meeting was scheduled to hold between Saraki and the national chairman of the party, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, but it was rescheduled. The outcome of that meeting is believed to be crucial to the eventual peace within the party.